Last year the Office for National Statistics issued its 2018 population projections. These original projections indicated the Welsh Population would decline from 2025 onwards. Revised projections recently issued (to address an error in the “processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England”) indicate the projections under-estimated Wales’ net population by 2028 of some 65,000 people.

The Welsh Government tells us having consulted with our expert group about the implications for our statistical products that are based on the 2018-based national population projections, we decided to withdraw the following outputs for Wales.

2018-based local authority population projections
2018-based local authority household projections

The seriousness of this on the NDF, SDP’s and LDP’s should not be underestimated where Planning Policy Wales tells us this data forms a fundamental part of the evidence base for development plans.

In simple terms the level of planned for housing growth in emerging LDPs and reviews may well be underestimated by some 30000 new dwelling net to 2028 (170dwgs/yr per authority across Wales.)

It seems likely low levels of growth ldp’s currently propose (and notably housing delivery trajectories showing growth reducing post 2025) are going to have to be reviewed.

Welsh Government expects new Local Authority level projections to be issued before the end of the month where localised impacts will become clearer.